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Coronavirus and dropping US yields – Gold bulls cheer!

Veljača 05, 2020 11:30

Source: Economic Events February 5, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


Gold showed a clear bullish tendency over the last week of trading, with clear attention being on the region around 1,555 USD, around 2019's yearly highs.

The main driver certainly came from the latest news and developments concerning the Coronavirus, which resulted in a risk-off mode, driving US yields lower and thus Gold higher.

While the main question is how long these risk-off tendencies will last (based on a 2017 paper, economists calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk could amount to 'only' about $500 billion (ca. 0.6% of global income) per year)), Gold still has other, still bullish drivers.

After the Fed rate decision didn't deliver anything new last Wednesday, pressure on US yields diminished a little after ISM Manufacturing data jumped to 50.9 in January of 2020 from 47.8 in December, beating market forecasts of 48.5 and pointing to the first increase in factory activity in six months.

Still, the question is if today's ADP Employment data set and ISM Non-Manufacturing can show similar tendencies. If they don't and they come in below expectations, a drop in 10-year US Treasury yields below 1.5% could follow, levelling the path up to 1,600 USD in Gold again.

Such a push higher is also favoured from a technical perspective as long as we trade above 1,440/450 USD. The potential next target on the upside can then be found in the region around 1,650/700 USD.

A drop back below 1,550 USD would be short-term bearish, activating the region around 1,510/515 USD:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between November 2, 2018, to February 4, 2020). Accessed: February 4, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.


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