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The DAX30 CFD about to enter bearish seasonal window – but the Fed…

Lipanj 17, 2019 12:00

Source: Economic Events June 17, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


As we enter the start of the trading week the economic calendar is quite thin, so our focus will be on the technical and seasonal aspects of the DAX30 CFD.

From a purely technical perspective, the DAX30 CFD can be considered range-bound on an hourly time-frame between 12,050 and 12,220 points. The bearish tendency into the last weekly close gives the neutral picture a bearish touch, and a sustainable break below 12,050 points would likely be followed by a dynamic test of the region around 12,000 points, a drop below activates 11,900/930 points.

This bearish touch is underlined by a bearish seasonal window beginning today: over the last 21 years, the DAX lost in 16, or 76% of the cases 187 points between the June 17-25. In the other 5 years, the DAX gained on average only 48 points with a maximum drawdown of only 144 points.

But with the Fed rate decision coming on Wednesday and current rising speculation of a equity-friendly rate cut - which is probably also the reason for the dynamic break to new yearly highs in Gold last Friday - we consider anticipating a break lower in the DAX30 CFD to be too aggressive, and favour a short entry only if we get to see a clear, clean, sustainable break below 12,050 points:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between May 27, 2019, to June 14, 2019). Accessed: June 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD daily chart (between March 5, 2018, to June 14, 2019). Accessed: June 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT


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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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Upozorenje o riziku

CFD-ovi su složeni instrumenti i dolaze s visokim rizikom od brzog gubitka novca zbog financijske poluge. 84% računa malih ulagatelja izgubi novac tijekom trgovanja CFD-ovima s ovim pružateljem usluga. Trebali biste razmotriti razumijete li kako CFD-ovi funkcioniraju te možete li si priuštiti preuzimanje visokog rizika od gubitka novca.