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The USD/JPY enters a bearish short-term season – is 105.00 a target?

Travanj 13, 2020 10:30

Stock market

Economic Events

Source: Economic Events April 13, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

After high volatility in Treasury and FX markets over the last weeks, the Easter weekend gives traders some air to breathe.

Still, the picture in the USD/JPY looks fairly interesting: technically, the currency pair made back some of its recent losses after its drop back below 108.50/109.00, with the overall mode staying choppy, but in our opinion an overall bearish touch.

Reason for our "bearishness" is the to be expected pressure on 10-year-US Treasury yields, where technically only recapturing 1.20% would brighten the bearish outlook.

Besides that, the currency pair currently also finds itself in a bearish seasonal window: over the last 24 years, USD/JPY dropped between April 8 - 16, by an average of 137 pips while it rose in the remaining six years on average 68 pips with a max drawdown of 153 pips.

And while we still consider a new wave of risk-off hitting global financial markets to be a serious option and thus under "normal" market conditions a driver lower for the USD/JPY, currently such a risk-off-wave would likely going hand in hand with an increasing demand for the USD, given the global USD shortage.

Should such a USD squeeze materialize in the days/weeks ahead, a test, probably even break of the region around 112.00/30 would be an option.

Still, a sustainable drop below 107.00 would potentially level the path down to 105.00:

 Daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between February 18, 2019, to April 10, 2020). Accessed: April 10, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 0.5%, in 2016 it fell by 2.8%, in 2017 it fell by 3.6%, in 2018 it fell by 2.7%, in 2019 it fell by 0.85%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 9.2%.

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