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EUR/USD gaining more bearish momentum from the disappointing inflation data?

Travanj 17, 2020 11:00

EUR-USD

Economic Events

Source: Economic Events April 17, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

The mode in the Euro, and here in the EUR/USD, remains choppy. But after a very weak performance on Wednesday, it has picked up a bearish touch.

The failed attempt to recapture 1.1000 send already a message to Euro bulls, but after the Euro couldn't profit from the very weak Retail Sales data on Wednesday (coming in at -8.7%, and at an all-time low passing its former record at -3.9% in 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis), it seems likely that we get to see a soon coming re-test of the March lows around 1.0630.

This could be especially true if the final inflation rate print for the Eurozone today prints below the already low 0.7% expectation.

Reason for the lowest expectation here since last October is not only the Covid-19 outbreak, but probably especially the recent drop in oil which couldn't be stopped despite the historic production output cut form OPEC+ over the last weekend.

That said, an acceleration in the EUR/USD on the downside is likely, not only resulting in wave lower, but a break below 1.0600/30 which makes a further drop as low as 1.0500 and probably even lower a serious option:

Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on EUR/USD Daily chart (between February 15, 2019, to April 16, 2020). Accessed: April 16, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the EUR/USD fell by 10.2%, in 2016, it fell by 3.2%, in 2017, it increased by 13.92%, 2018, it fell by 4.4%, 2019, it fell by 2.2%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 7.3%.

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